Insights Markets and Economy

Our current outlook on recession probabilities.
Éric Morin Jan. 14, 2026 4-minute read
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United States: Resilience amid uncertainty

Inflation and policy easing

Corporate earnings and credit quality

Labour market resiliency

Canada: A story of gradual recovery

Gradual recovery and contained tariffs headwinds

Inflation and policy support

Medium-term considerations

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Written by

Éric Morin

Director, Global Macro & Strategy, Multi-Asset & Currency Management

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